Political Roundtable -- 19 September 2002

>> Michael: JUST AHEAD ON
"NEED TO KNOW," LOST IN ALL
THE EMOTION OF LAST WEEK'S
SEPTEMBER 11th REMEMBRANCES
WAS AN ELECTION NIGHT.
FOR NEW YORK STATE AND THE
NATION'S CAPITAL, THE PRIMARY
NIGHT RESULTS MEAN A FAR MORE
INTERESTING ELECTION DAY COME
NOVEMBER.
WE TALK WITH THREE POLITICAL
EXPERTS ABOUT THIS FALL'S
CAMPAIGN.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE OUR WEEKLY
BUSINESS SECTION WITH ELLEN
ROSEN OF THE "DEMOCRAT AND
CHRONICLE."
IT'S ALL JUST AHEAD ON "NEED
TO KNOW."

(Music)

>> THIS IS "NEED TO KNOW," THE
ROCHESTER AREA'S ONLY IN-DEPTH
NEWS PROGRAM.
"NEED TO KNOW" IS A PRODUCTION
OF WXXI NEWS AND PUBLIC
AFFAIRS COVERING ISSUES,
POLITICS, EDUCATION AND
CURRENT EVENTS.

>> "NEED TO KNOW" IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY DORSCHEL LEXUS AND
THROUGH THE SUPPORT OF VIEWERS
LIKE YOU.

>> Michael: THANK YOU FOR
JOINING US.
I'M MICHAEL CAPUTO.
WHERE DO WE BEGIN WITH THIS
POLITICAL SEASON WHICH HAS
SUDDENLY SEEN MORE FLAT TURNS
THAN AN EPISODE OF "ALIENS?"
HOW ABOUT CLOSE TO HOME?
ROCHESTER AREA BILLIONAIRE TOM
GOLISANO SOMEHOW WON THE
INDEPENDENCE PARTY PRIMARY AND
PLANS TO SPEND MILLIONS IN HIS
BID FOR GOVERNOR.
REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT GEORGE
PATAKI IS STILL THE ODDS-ON
FAVORITE FOR A THIRD TERM, BUT
THE LATEST POLLS SHOW HIS LEAD
OVER DEMOCRAT H. CARL McCALL
HAS SHRUNK BY HALF.
ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL, THE
MIDTERM ELECTIONS PUT CONTROL
OF CONGRESS IN PLAY.
DEMOCRATS HAVE A SCANT
ONE-VOTE ADVANTAGE IN THE
SENATE WHILE A FLIP OF SIX
SEATS COULD MEAN LOSS OF
CONTROL BY REPUBLICANS IN THE
HOUSE.
HERE IN STUDIO TO TALK ABOUT
THE FEISTY FALL CAMPAIGN ARE
THREE ASTUTE POLITICAL
OBSERVERS, CURT SMITH, FORMER
SPEECH WRITER FOR THE FIRST
BUSH PRESIDENCY AND NOTED
BROADCASTER, AUTHOR AND
LECTURER.
SARAH LIEBSCHUTZ, UNIVERSITY
OF ROCHESTER POLITICAL SCIENCE
PROFESSOR AND PROFESSOR
EMERITUS AT THE STATE
UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AND
ROCKPORT.
AND MARK GEARAN, FORMER
DIRECTOR OF THE PEACE CORPS, A
FORMER CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
OFFICIAL AND NOW PRESIDENT OF
HOBART AND WILLIAM SMITH
COLLEGES.
THANK YOU ALL FOR COMING.
LET'S START WITH THE HOMETOWN
BOY.
GOLISANO'S INDEPENDENT PARTY
WIN WAS ACTUALLY THE FIRST
ELECTORAL DEFEAT FOR GOVERNOR
GEORGE PATAKI.
GOLISANO SPENT 30 MILLION TO
OBTAIN JUST ROUGHLY 9,700
VOTES.
THE GOLISANO PEOPLE SAY THAT
THIS VICTORY POINTS OUT THE
WEAKNESS THAT PATAKI HAS
AND AMONG THE ELECTORS.
MEANWHILE THE PATAKI FOLKS SAY
WHILE HE'S SPENT A LOT OF
MONEY AND JUST TARGETED A FEW
PEOPLE AND GAINED THE VOTES OF
THE FEW PEOPLE MEANS NOTHING.
SO LET ME START WITH CURT, WHO
IS RIGHT HERE.

>> I THINK THAT GOLISANO HAS A
POINT.
I SAID I THOUGHT THE PATAKI
LEAD WAS NOT INSURMOUNTABLE,
THAT THREE THINGS HAD TO
HAPPEN FOR THE DEMOCRATS TO
WIN.
NUMBER ONE, GOLISANO HAD TO BE
THE NOMINEE OF ONE POLITICAL
PARTY.
THAT HAPPENED WITH INDEPENDENT
PARTY.
NUMBER TWO, THAT CARL McCALL
HAD TO BE THE NOMINEE BECAUSE
ANDREW CUOMO WAS FAR TOO
VULCANIZED, TOO FRACTURING AND
POLARIZED.
HE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE ISSUE
AGAINST PATAKI.
THAT HAS OCCURRED AS WELL.
THE THIRD IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT.
GEORGE PATAKI IS RUNNING LIKE
GEORGE McGOVERN.
TWO YEARS AGO RICK LAZIO TOOK
UPSTATE NEW YORK FOR GRANTED.
PATAKI HAS GONE ONE WORSE.
HE HAS SHOWN CONTEMPT FOR
UPSTATE AND ANIMUS ACTIVELY
TOWARD THE REPUBLICAN AND
CONSERVATIVE BASE WITH THE
CONDESCENDING AND PATRONIZING
AND RATHER NASTY ATTITUDE
THAT, WELL, YOU CONSERVATIVES,
YOU VILLAGE IDIOTS, YOU
MORONS, YOU HAVE NOWHERE ELSE
TO GO.
WELL, GUESS WHAT?
AFTER TUESDAY, THEY HAVE
SOMEWHERE ELSE TO GO.

>> Michael: THIS IS A STATE
WHERE DEMOCRATS OUTNUMBER
REPUBLICANS FIVE-TO-THREE.
YOU HAVE TO BE A MODERATE
REPUBLICAN TO WIN STATEWIDE,
DON'T YOU?

>> GEORGE PATAKI IS NOT A
MODERATE REPUBLICAN.
HE HAS RUN A McGOVERN A.C.L.U.
N.E.A. TYPE OF CAMPAIGN AND
IT'S BEEN QUITE CALCULATING
AND QUITE DELIBERATE.
IT'S NOT A REPUBLICAN VERSUS
DEMOCRAT.
IT'S ULTRA LEVEL VERSUS MIDDLE
AMERICA; MIDDLE AMERICAN BEING
THE TEXTILE WORKER FROM
BUFFALO.
MIDDLE AMERICA CAN BE THE
GARMENT WORKER IN MANHATTAN.
MIDDLE AMERICA STATE OF MIND
CAN BE ENTREPRENEUR OR A
FARMER UPSTATE.
AND GEORGE PATAKI HAS RUN A
CAMPAIGN WHICH HAS SHOWN AN
OVERT CONTEMPT FOR ALL.
HE DIDN'T THINK HE'D PAY A
PRICE.
HE MAY.

>> Michael: LET ME THROW THIS
TO THE REST OF YOU.
DO YOU FEEL TOM GOLISANO
REALLY MAKES A DIFFERENCE
HERE?

>> I'D SAY GOLISANO MAKES THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSE OF
RAISING ISSUES THAT PERHAPS
McCALL WOULD NOT RAISE AGAINST
THE GOVERNOR BECAUSE, AFTER
ALL, McCALL IS PART OF THE
GOVERNMENT, AND I THINK
GOLISANO HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN
TERMS OF BEING OUTSIDE
GOVERNMENT AND BRINGING WHAT
HE SAYS IS A BUSINESS PERSON'S
PERSPECTIVE.
I DON'T AGREE ENTIRELY WITH
CURT IN TERMS OF THE
CAMPAIGNING OF GEORGE PATAKI,
AND I THINK RATHER THAN
TALKING ABOUT CAMPAIGNING
YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK AT WHAT HE
HAS DONE AS GOVERNOR, AND I
THINK THAT IT'S NOT TOO HARD
TO MAKE A CASE THAT HIS
POLICIES HAVE BEEN CALCULATED
TO BE BENEFICIAL TO ALL
SEGMENTS OF THE STATE, THOSE
LIBERALS AS WELL AS THOSE
CONSERVATIVES, AND THAT'S WHY
I THINK HE'S GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO DEFEAT.

>> Michael: I'D LOVE TO TALK
ABOUT POLICY OF PATAKI
INCIDENTALLY.

>> IT'S BEEN INTERESTING.
I THINK THE WHOLE GOLISANO
RACE SHOWS, IF ANYTHING, I
SUSPECT CONSIDERABLE FRACTION
TO GOVERNOR PATAKI AND HIS
TEAM; IT SHOWS THE POWER OF
TELEVISION, I THINK FRANKLY.
GOLISANO HAS... HE SPENT A
LOT OF MONEY CLEARLY.
NEVERTHELESS THIS MESSAGE HAS
SOME RESONANCE.
I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS
JUST A CONTINUATION OF A
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BEING
PLAYED OUT.
THIS IS AN INTERPARTY GROVEL.
BOTH PARTIES HAVEN'T GOTTEN
OUT.
HOW MUCH WILL CUT INTO THE
GOVERNOR'S REPUBLICAN SUPPORT?
I THINK IT'S MODEST.
FRANKLY I DON'T KNOW THIRD
YEAR.
WE'RE EXPERT ON REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY POLITICS, AND I WOULD
BE CERTAINLY, BUT I DON'T
THINK THE GOVERNOR, IN TERMS
OF THE REPUBLICAN-BASED
SUPPORT, HAS A GREAT DEAL TO
WORRY ABOUT.

>> Michael: WELL, THE FIRST
POLL THAT CAME OUT SHOWED IT
SEEMED WHEN YOU PUT GOLISANO
IN THE MIX, HE DRAWS EQUALLY
FROM McCALL AND FROM PATAKI,
WHICH OF COURSE THE PATAKI
PEOPLE ARE POINTING OUT
VIGOROUSLY.
LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.
I WANT TO READ THE "NEW YORK
TIMES" ARTICLE THAT WAS
HEADLINED "HOT TICKET IN
WASHINGTON, H. CARL McCALL."
IT TALKED ABOUT HOW WASHINGTON
POLITICIANS SUCH AS AL GORE
AND PHIL LIEBERMAN WERE
WINING, DINING AND PRAISING H.
CARL McCALL.
THE BIGGEST LINE WAS THE
PROMISE OF THE HALF MILLION
DOLLARS BY TERRY McCULLOUGH,
THE CHAIRMAN OF THE DEMOCRATIC
NATIONAL COMMITTEE.
SO, SARAH, IS McCALL THE REAL
McCOY?
DOES THIS PROVE IT?

>> I THINK CARL McCALL IS THE
21st CENTURY'S VERSION OF THE
LOG CABIN CANDIDATE.
I THINK THAT HIS PAT CAMPAIGN
SPEECH ABOUT HAVING GROWN UP
IN DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES,
CHILD OF A MOTHER ON WELFARE,
PLACES HIM IN THAT WAY.
AND I THINK HIS STRESS ON HARD
WORK AND EDUCATION ALSO MAKE
HIM VERY APPEALING.
FURTHERMORE HE'S GOT A RECORD
OF ACCOMPLISHMENT AND
ACHIEVEMENT, AND SO I THINK HE
IS THE REAL McCOY.

>> Michael: YET HE'S AN
INSIDER JUST LIKE GEORGE
PATAKI IS AN INSIDER.
DOES IT MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
WHEN YOU HAVE THE OUTSIDER
STANDING IN THE WINGS, AND
SURELY HE'S GOING TO POINT
FINGERS AT BOTH McCALL AND
PATAKI.
WHETHER HE DOES OR NOT, I
DON'T KNOW.
I'M TALKING ABOUT GOLISANO.

>> YEAH.
I MEAN, I THINK HE'S -- HIS
PERSONAL STORY IS VERY
COMPELLING, AND ULTIMATELY FOR
A POSITION LIKE GOVERNOR,
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF THE STATE,
THE CHARACTER, THE INTEGRITY,
THE PERSONAL STORY, HIS
BACKGROUND, HIS PERSONAL
SUCCESS STORY IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE INDEED; AND I THINK
IT'S A VERY COMPELLING PART OF
HIS CAMPAIGN MESSAGE.
IT'S AUTHENTIC.
HE SPEAKS OF IT MODESTLY,
ABOUT HIS ACHIEVEMENT.
HE PUTS IT IN PERSPECTIVE.
HE IS HIGHLY CREDENTIALED TO
BE THE NOMINEE FOR THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY ON EVERY
MEASURE, VERY MUCH SEPARATE
FROM HIS OWN PERSONAL STORY.
SO HE'S A FORMIDABLE
CANDIDATE.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATS I THINK ARE
MOST INTRIGUED.
NEW YORK IS A KEY STATE.
IT'S A VERY IMPORTANT STATE.
IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT "THE
TIMES" WOULD HAVE THAT KIND OF
SUPPORT.
HE'S IMPRESSIVE.
IT'S A GOOD RACE, THE NATIONAL
DEMOCRATS TO LOOK AT.
AND HE'S A VERY IMPRESSIVE
CANDIDATE.

>> Michael: HE'S BEEN CALLED,
ALONG WITH I THINK RON... IN
TEXAS, A MODERN-DAY
AFRICAN-AMERICAN CANDIDATE,
SOMEBODY WHO CAN APPEAL TO ALL
VOTERS.
DO YOU SEE CARL McCALL AS
BEING SOMEBODY WHO COULD
APPEAL TO UPSTATE VOTERS?

>> I HAVE FELT FOR A NUMBER OF
MONTHS THIS IS A COUNTENANCE
BEARING.
HE COMES ACROSS UNMENACING,
UNTHREATENING, RATHER BENIGN
AND INNOCUOUS.
I WOULD AGREE WITH MARK THAT
IT IS AN APPEALING LIFE STORY.
IT'S AN APPALLING RECORD.
THIS IS A MAN WHO BELIEVES IN
GAY UNIONS.
THIS IS A MAN WHO BELIEVES IN
RACIAL QUOTAS.
HE HAS WRITTEN AS SUCH.
THIS IS A MAN WHO BELIEVES IN
LEGAL HEROIN FOR HARD-CORE
USERS.
HE HAS SAID AS MUCH.
EQUAL JOB OPPORTUNITIES FOR
EX-CONVICTS; THAT'S NOT IN THE
MAINSTREAM OF NEW YORK.
WHAT'S FASCINATING IS THAT
PATAKI IN EFFECT HAS GOVERNED
IN A MANNER VERY MUCH LIKE
THIS.
GEORGE RULE WROTE A COLUMN A
COUPLE MONTHS AGO.
HIS 15% INCREASE ANNUALLY IN
SPENDING.
THAT'S TWICE THE RATE OF MARIO
CUOMO.
HE URGES ALMOST A $2 BILLION
INCREASE FOR HOSPITAL WORKERS'
UNIONS.
THAT WOULD BUST THE BUDGET, AS
YOU WOULD SAY OR I WOULD SAY
WEAKENING ROCK-SOLID AREA DRUG
LAWS.
I GUESS HE THINKS THE
REPUBLICAN BASE ARE NO LONGER
MIDDLE-CLASS NEW YORKERS ARE
COKE FIENDS AND DRUG...
I DON'T THINK THAT'S THE CASE.
I DON'T THINK MOST
CONSERVATIVES, I DON'T THINK
MOST MIDDLE AMERICANS.
HE GOES TO PUERTO RICO,
THIS IS THE MOST UNFORGIVABLE
SIN OF ALL.
AND IN HIS BIDDING FOR THE
HISPANIC VOTE, HE COUNTERS AND
HE OPPOSES MILITARY OF UNITED
STATES, WHICH SAID IN TERMS
TRAINING EXERCISES OF PUERTO
RICO, WE NEED THESE.
WE CANNOT REPLICATE TRAINING
EXERCISES AND CONDITIONS
ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.
PATAKI SAID I DON'T CARE.
HE PUT HISPANIC SUPPORT OVER
THE NATIONAL SECURITIES OF
UNITED STATES, AND McCALL HAS
DONE THE SAME.
MY POINT IS THAT'S WHY YOU'VE
GOT OVER HERE RUNNING TWO
EXTREME CAMPAIGNS, McCALL AND
ALSO PATAKI; AND YOU'VE GOT
GOLISANO.
GOLISANO IS NONE OF THE ABOVE
CANDIDATE.
I THINK HIS RECORD IS
IRRELEVANT.
I THINK THE PEOPLE
PARTICULARLY UPSTATE SIMPLY
CAN'T BRING THEMSELVES TO A
VOTE FOR EITHER ONE OF THE
TWO.
GOLISANO, I DON'T THINK YOU'LL
SEE FIVE TO SIX WEEKS FROM NOW
AFTER THE ADVERTISING BLITZ.
I DON'T THINK HE'LL BE TAKING
EQUALLY FROM BOTH CANDIDATES.
I THINK HE'LL BE TAKING THE
GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK.

>> Michael: REPUBLICANS ARE
CLEARLY SUPREMELY CONFIDENT.
WITH GOVERNOR PATAKI --
(Talking simultaneously)

>> LOOK AT THE LATEST POLL.
HE DROPPED BY 15 PERCENTAGE
POINTS, PATAKI.
THAT'S WITH GOLISANO FACTORED
IN.
YOU'VE GOT THE BASIC SUPPORT
THAT SORT OF COMMITMENT OF
SUPPORT.
APPARENTLY THOSE COMMITTED TO
PATAKI ARE FAR MORE
COMMITTED...
(Talking simultaneously)
PATAKI SUPPORT IS VERY SOFT.

>> ...CANDIDATES ON ELECTION
DAY.
THE BLITZ BY GOLISANO HAS NOT
YET BEGUN.
FRANKLY THE SAME AS McCALL.
JOHN F. KENNEDY ONCE SAID THAT
SOMETIMES PARTY LOYALTY ASKS
TOO MUCH.
THAT IS DEMONSTRABLY TRUE OF
PATAKI.
A PARTY IS NOT AN END.
A PARTY IS A MEANS, A MEANS TO
DO GREAT DEEDS ON BEHALF OF
THE AVERAGE MIDDLE-CLASS
VOTER.
PATAKI HAS NOT DONE THAT.
HE WILL NOT DO THAT.
HE HAS RUN A CAMPAIGN THAT I
THINK IS EMBLEMATIC OF A DYING
REPUBLICAN PARTY IN THE
NORTHEAST.
EVERY POLL SHOWS THAT, AND THE
LOGISTICS OF OFFICE SHOW THAT.
THIS IS A PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHERE REPUBLICANS SAY, HEY,
WE'RE REALLY AGREEING WITH THE
DEMOCRATIC AGENDA.
WE JUST DISAGREE ON THE SPEED
WITH WHICH TO REACH IT.

>> Michael: IF YOU ARE AN
UPSTATE VOTER, THOUGH, HOW ARE
YOU GOING TO VOTE FOR THE
OTHER TWO GUYS WHEN YOU'VE GOT
SOMEBODY WHO AT LEAST HAS CUT
TAXES?
I MEAN, I'M TALKING ABOUT
APPEALING TO THOSE WHO WANT
ACCESS.
GEORGE PATAKI HAS DONE THAT.
I'M SURE THAT'S HOW HE'S GOING
TO -- ISN'T THAT HOW HE'S
GOING TO BRING OUT HIS RECORD?

>> I THINK THAT THE GOVERNOR
HAS BECOME POPULAR BECAUSE OF
THE POLICIES HE'S PROMOTED.
HE INITIATED CONTINUING --
CONTINUATION OF TAX CUTS BEGUN
IN THE CUOMO YEARS, CUTTING
PERSONAL INCOME TAXES, CUTTING
BUSINESS TAXES, AND CUTTING
LOCAL SCHOOL PROPERTY TAXES
THROUGH THE STAR EXEMPTION
PROGRAM.
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THESE
TAXES HAVE SAVED NEW YORKERS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, THE
REVENUES TO THE STATES HAVE
INCREASED THROUGH TAXES.
THE EXPLANATION FOR THAT OF
COURSE IS THE GROWING DYNAMIC
ECONOMY THROUGH THE '90s.
I ALSO THINK THAT PATAKI HAS
GAINED MUCH SUPPORT WITH HIS
PROMOTION OF CHILD HEALTH PLUS
AND FAMILY HEALTH PLUS.
THESE ARE --

>> Michael: SOME WOULD CALL
THAT EXPLOITATION.
I THINK HIS OPPONENTS WOULD
CALL THAT EXPLOITATION IN
TERMS OF THE TELEVISION ADS
FOR CHILD HEALTH.

>> WELL, CHILD HEALTH PLUS IS
A PROGRAM OF PROVIDING HEALTH
INSURANCE FOR CHILDREN WHO ARE
ABOVE THE POVERTY LEVEL.
THAT'S THE FEDERAL PART OF THE
PROGRAM IN TERMS OF A SPECIAL
CHILD HEALTH INSURANCE
PROGRAM.
AT THE SAME TIME AS CHILDREN
HAVE BEEN ENROLED FOR THAT OR
ENROLLMENT CAMPAIGNS HAVE BEEN
GOING ON, MORE AND MORE
CHILDREN HAVE BEEN DISCOVERED
TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR MEDICAID.
THAT'S NOT VERY POPULAR WITH
THE COUNTIES WHO HAVE TO PICK
UP HALF OF THE NON-FEDERAL
SHARE WITH THE STATE.
BUT ALSO THE FAMILY HEALTH
PROGRAM, HEALTH PLUS PROGRAM
PROVIDING HEALTH INSURANCE FOR
FAMILIES WHO ARE JUST ABOVE
THE POVERTY LEVEL.
THESE ARE PROGRAMS THAT ARE
VERY MUCH WELCOMED BY THE
WORKING POOR AND I THINK ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE WELFARE
REFORM THAT IS GOING ON
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AND
THROUGH NEW YORK.

>> MY SENSE IS THE CAMPAIGN IS
JUST REALLY GETTING GOING.
I TAKE YOUR POINT ABOUT THE
POLLS, BUT WITH ANDREW CUOMO
GOING OUT OF THE RACE A WEEK
BEFORE PRIMARY, I THINK HE
PRESERVED HIS OWN POLITICAL
FUTURE CERTAINLY.
HE ALSO GAVE CARL McCALL A
GREAT -- THERE WAS A GREAT
DEAL OF COVERAGE THE WEEK
BEFORE THE PRIMARY, WELL IN
ADVANCE OF 9/11.
WHAT WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT
OF COURSE IS THE EFFECT OF
SEPTEMBER 11th ON HIS
POLITICS.
IN MANY WAYS I THINK WE'RE
HEADING INTO A CRITICAL PERIOD
NOW.
I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF NEW
YORK VOTERS ARE ONLY NOW
BEGINNING TO BEAM INTO THE
GOVERNOR'S RACE WITH THE KIND
OF INTENSITY THAT WE'RE GOING
TO SEE, OUTSIDE OF REAL...
I THINK THAT'S THE VALUE OF
DEBATE.
HOPEFULLY WE'LL HAVE ONE HERE
IN ROCHESTER; HOPEFULLY WE'LL
HAVE ONE RIGHT HERE ON YOUR
SHOW.
BUT THE POINT IS THAT I THINK
MOST VOTERS NOW ARE REALLY
GOING TO BE LOOKING AT ISSUES
OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,
EDUCATION, HEALTH CARE.
AND THAT'S THE VALUE OF THIS
PERIOD OF TIME.

>> TALK ABOUT SEPTEMBER 11th
AND ITS IMPACT ON THIS
PARTICULAR RACE, AND WE COULD
EVEN BROADEN THAT FROM THAT TO
THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES.
TALK ABOUT THIS GUBERNATORIAL
ELECTION ESPECIALLY.
PATAKI, ON SEPTEMBER 11th,
READ THE GETTYSBURG ADDRESS
AND, FOR THAT ONE DAY,
POLITICS WAS OUT THE WINDOW.
HOW DOES THIS FIT IN?

>> WELL, APPROPRIATELY SO
THAT POLITICS WAS OUT THE
WINDOW.
I THINK SEPTEMBER 11th
FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED THE RACE
GOING BACK A YEAR CERTAINLY IN
TERMS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
POLITICS AND THE WHOLE WAY IN
WHICH THEY'VE BEEN -- THE
GOVERNOR'S ACTIONS AND ITS
LEADERSHIP, WITH A DIFFERENT
WINDOW ON HIM AS IT WAS WITH
MAYOR GIULIANI.
GOING INTO THIS PERIOD OF
TIME, HOWEVER, THAT'S WHERE I
SAID THIS IS WHERE I THINK THE
CAMPAIGN IS REALLY BEGINNING,
IS WITH THE ANNIVERSARY OF
SEPTEMBER 11th, PUTTING
POLITICS ASIDE VERY
APPROPRIATELY ON THAT DAY.
NOW WE GET INTO THE REAL
BENEFIT OF THE CAMPAIGN, WHICH
IS THE EXCHANGE OF IDEAS,
MIXING IT UP A LITTLE BIT, IN
DEBATES, IN CONVERSATION, IN
THE KIND OF ADVERTISING.
SO LET THE GAMES BEGIN.
I THINK IT'S JUST STARTING.

>> I THINK THAT THE GOVERNOR
GAINED TREMENDOUSLY IN HIS
IMAGE AS CHIEF OF STATE, IF
YOU WILL, AND I THINK THAT ONE
OF THE MOST INTERESTING
ENDORSEMENTS THAT HE'S HAD
THIS TIME IS THE TELEVISION
COMMERCIALS BY MAYOR -- FORMER
MAYOR GIULIANI, WHO OF COURSE
DID NOT ENDORSE HIM --

>> GIULIANI ALSO WISHED TO
HAVE A FUTURE IN THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND THIS IS
ONE WAY TO ENSURE THAT.

>> GIULIANI TALKS ABOUT IT
LIKE HE'S REALLY FOUND A
FRIEND IN --

>> IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY.
FAR BE IT FOR ME WOULD SAY
THAT ANYTHING IN POLITICS --
(Talking simultaneously)
MARK AND I WOULD CERTAINLY
AGREE WITH THAT.
BUT I TEND TO AGREE WITH YOU.
THE BRITS HAVE A WONDERFUL
SYSTEM.
THEY TAKE SIX WEEKS FOR THEIR
ELECTION.
WE'VE GOT SIX WEEKS LEFT.
AND IT'S INTERESTING, THE
AGENDA THAT YOU TALK ABOUT,
SARAH, WE WON'T TALK ABOUT THE
MERIT OF IT, BUT IT'S A
DEMOCRATIC AGENDA.
THERE'S BEEN NO ATTEMPT BY HIM
OF ANY KIND TO RAISE ANY OF
THE KIND OF ISSUES, CULTURAL
AND SOCIALLY, THAT MIGHT
APPEAL ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF
NEW YORK VOTERS AND FRANKLY A
LOT OF SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE
VOTERS IN NEW YORK.
MY POINT BEING THE OLD CANARD
ABOUT IF IT WALKS, TALKS AND
ACTS LIKE A DUCK, IT'S A DUCK.
IF IT TALKS, WALKS AND ACTS
LIKE AN A.C.L.U. DEMOCRAT,
THAT MUST BE WHAT IT IS.
THAT'S HOW HE'S CONDUCTING
HIMSELF.
WE'LL SEE.
I WOULD SAY HE'S STILL A
FAVORITE.
HE'S THE INCUMBENT.
HE'S GOT A GREAT AFTERGLOW
FROM 9/11 OF LAST YEAR.
WE WOULDN'T BE TALKING ABOUT
PATAKI AS A FAVORITE TODAY
WERE IT NOT FOR 9/11.
I ACTUALLY THINK THAT ANDREW
CUOMO, THOUGH HE WAS IN
POLITICS, NOT IN ACTUAL
SENATE, AT A POINT IN TERMS OF
GIULIANI BEING THE REAL LEADER
OF 9/11.
MARGARET THATCHER SAID THERE
ARE TWO KINDS OF POLITICIANS:
CONVICTION POLITICIANS AND
NON-CONVICTION POLITICIANS.
GIULIANI IS A CONVICTION
POLITICIAN; PATAKI IS NOT.

>> Michael: WE HAD
REDISTRICTING.
WE USUALLY, AFTER
REDISTRICTING, WE ACTUALLY GET
MAYBE ONE, TWO, TEN
COMPETITIVE RACES.
ARE WE SEEING ANY COMPETITION
ON THE STATE LEGISLATIVE
LEVEL?

>> NO.

>> NO, WE ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT
BECAUSE THERE ARE TWO GOALS
THAT ARE SHARED BY REPUBLICANS
AND DEMOCRATS EVERY TIME THERE
IS A REDISTRICTING
OPPORTUNITY.
ONE IS PROTECT THE PARTY
MAJORITY IN THE ASSEMBLY AND
THE SENATE AND THE CONGRESS;
AND NUMBER TWO, PROTECT THE
INCUMBENT.
SO WITH THOSE GOALS IN MIND,
CLEARLY PLAYED OUT, I EXPECT
NO CHANGE, EXCEPT PERHAPS
WHERE THERE IS AN OPEN SEAT IN
THE SENSE THAT THERE'S NO
INCUMBENT.
AND I WOULD POINT TO THE ONLY
RACE THAT WE HAD LOCALLY LIKE
THAT, WHICH WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH, AND THAT
IS THE SEAT THAT RICK
DOLLINGER CURRENTLY HOLDS BUT
HE'S WITHDRAWN FROM THAT TO
RUN FOR COUNTY COURT JUDGE;
WHERE ROBACH HAS CHANGED PARTY
AFFILIATION AND NOW IS THE
CANDIDATE.

>> THE OTHER PART OF THAT
REDISTRICTING THAT IS
INTERESTING ABOUT NEW YORK IS
THE POWERFUL DELEGATION.
WHAT WAS PLAYED OUT IN THIS
REDISTRICTING CERTAINLY IS
SHAPED VERY MUCH BY THE HEAD
OF THE DEMOCRATIC
CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN...
TOM REYNOLDS, CONGRESSMAN,
SOON TO BE, REPORTED TO BE THE
CHAIR OF THE REPUBLICAN
CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN.
THERE ARE REAL POWERHOUSES AT
PLAY, SO THERE AREN'T TOO MANY
STATES WHERE YOU GET THE VICE
PRESIDENT CALLING IN, ALL THE
KIND OF MACHINATIONS OF THE
POLITICS OF REDISTRICTING,
WHICH IS A D.H.D. TOPIC UNTO
ITSELF.
BUT IT ALSO POINTS TO THE
INCREDIBLE POWER WITHIN THE
CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION.
THAT'S A GOOD THING FOR NEW
YORK.

>> ESSENTIALLY IN TERMS OF THE
LOCAL WITH JOE ROBACH RUNNING
AND ALREADY BEGINNING AN
ADVERTISING BLITZ OF HIS OWN
CERTAINLY WILL NOT LACK THE
CASH WITH HIS NEWFOUND
REPUBLIC FRIENDS.
THE OFFICE OF HOMELAND
SECURITY, THIS REDISTRICTING
IS INCUMBENT MAJORITY, AND I
THINK THE... IS NOT TO THE
BENEFIT BUT RATHER TO THE HARM
OF UPSTATE VOTERS.
THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE SAID
FOR THE COMPETITION.
WE HAVE A MONOPOLY INSTEAD.
THAT'S TRUE IN THE
CONGRESSIONAL RACE AS WELL.
I MEAN BOTH, IN MY VIEW AT
THIS TIME, I THINK BOTH THE
NATIONAL DEMOCRAT AND THE
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN PARTIES
SHOWED A CONTEMPT FOR WESTERN
NEW YORK.
WE DO NOT HAVE, CONTRARY TO
WHAT REYNOLDS SAYS... HIS
COMPADRES, A VOICE FROM MONROE
COUNTY.
BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE --
NOW WE HAVE FOUR... VOICES,
EXCEPT NONE OF THEM WILL GET A
MAJORITY OF THEIR VOTE FROM
MONROE COUNTY.
THEIR ALLEGIANCE IS NOT HERE,
UNLIKE SLAUGHTER,
AND I THINK IT RECOUNTS
ENORMOUSLY TO OUR
DISADVANTAGE.

>> Michael: I'VE GOT ABOUT A
MINUTE LEFT, AND I WANT TO
TOUCH ON THE HOUSE OF SENATE.
THERE ARE SEVENTY DIFFERENT
STATES.
IF THE DEMOCRATS WON, THE VOTE
LEADING THE SENATE...
REPUBLICANS.
ARE WE GOING TO SEE A CHANGE?
JUST QUICKLY AROUND THE
HORN...

>> WHETHER THE REPUBLICAN BASE
TURNS OUT WILL DETERMINE IN
ESSENCE WHETHER THE
REPUBLICANS "A" HOLD THE HOUSE
AND "B" CONTROL THE SENATE.
I DO NOT THINK FOREIGN POLICY
WILL INTRUDE.
I THINK IT'S A QUESTION OF WHO
CAN MOST GET THEIR PARTISANS
OUT ON ELECTION DAY.

>> I WOULD AGREE.

>> Michael: JUST REAL QUICKLY,
YOU DON'T THINK IRAQ WILL
PLAY?

>> I DON'T SEE A DIVISION OF
SUPPORT ON THE COUNTRY ALONG
PARTISAN LINES ON THAT ISSUE.

>> I DON'T THINK THAT WOULD
SEE THE DEMOCRATS STUPID
ENOUGH BEFORE ELECTION DAY TO
SAY, NO, Mr. PRESIDENT, WE
DON'T SUPPORT YOU.

>> IT'S A VOTE OF CONSCIENCE.
THE MEMBERS OF DEMOCRAT...
I SUSPECT YOU'LL SEE THE
DEMOCRAT SENATE CONTROL.

>> REALLY?
THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO
HANG ON?
REPUBLICAN WILL HANG ON, TOO,
DO YOU THINK?

>> IN THE HOUSE?
PRACTICALLY.
IF THE DEMOCRATS HAVE ANY
CHANCE.
IT'S SO RACE-SPECIFIC.
I THINK IT'S BREAD-AND-BUTTER
ISSUES, KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES
THAT ARE REALLY GOING TO
AFFECT THIS...

>> Michael: OUR TIME IS ABOUT
UP, AND I WANT TO THANK MY
GUESTS FOR COMING AND HELPING
US OUT.
TO CONTINUE THIS POLITICAL
DISCUSSION, JUST LOG ONTO OUR
WEB SITE www.wxxi.org/ntk.
WHILE YOU'RE THERE YOU CAN
TAKE PART IN OUR WEEKLY
INTERNET POLL.
FOR THE LATEST ON POLITICS AND
GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING COLUMNS
FROM WXXI NEWS REPORTERS, IT'S
nycitizens.org.s' MAP, YOU'LL SEE THE
NEW 28th DISTRICT FOR YOURSELF. CHECK IT OUT.

NOW IT'S TIME FOR THIS WEEK'S
EDITION OF "THE BUSINESS
SECTION" WITH THE "THE DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE."

(Music)

HERE IN STUDIO WITH US IS
ELLEN ROSEN, EDITOR OF THE
BUSINESS SECTION FOR THE
"DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE."
ELLEN, WE ARE TALKING POLITICS
TODAY.
WE WERE TALKING GOLISANO.
LET'S SPEAK OF GOLISANO.
PAYCHECKS HIT A PEAK
ACQUISITION THIS WEEK?
>> YES, THEY DID.
JUST YESTERDAY, AFTER THE
MARKETS CLOSED, THEY ANNOUNCED
THAT THEY WERE ACQUIRING --
PAYCHECKS WAS THE
SECOND-LARGEST PAYROLL
PROVIDER IN THE COUNTRY, AND
THEY ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WERE
ACQUIRING -- EITHER THE 4th OR
THE 5th, DEPENDING ON WHETHER
YOU'RE LOOKING AT REVENUES OR
CLIENTS, A COMPANY CALLED
ADVANCED... SERVICES OUT OF
AUBURN, MAINE.
>> Michael: SO WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN JOBSWISE FOR ROCHESTER?
>> IT'S HARD TO SAY IF IT
ACTUALLY MEANS ANY NEW JOBS
FOR ROCHESTER.
OUR REPORTER TODD GRADY TALKED
WITH TOM GOLISANO THIS
MORNING, AND HE SAID THAT THEY
MAY ACTUALLY MOVE SOME OF
THOSE -- SOME OF THOSE
EMPLOYEES MAY END UP WORKING
HERE.
OF COURSE PAYCHECKS HAS PLENTY
OF ROOM FOR THEM BETWEEN THE
NEW PLACE -- THEY JUST MOVED
TO A WESTERN... ABOUT TO MOVE
TO IN HENRIETTA, THE OLD
PRINTING PLACE.
>> Michael: THERE WAS ALSO...
EASTMAN KODAK HAD ITS
INVESTORS' REPORT THIS WEEK.
TELL US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
WHAT THEY TALKED ABOUT.
THE FUNNY THING I GUESS ABOUT
IT WAS THINGS ARE GOING TO GET
BETTER, BUT THERE WAS A
CAVEAT, WASN'T THERE?
>> WELL, YES.
KODAK MET YESTERDAY WITH MAJOR
INVESTORS AND WALL STREET
ANALYSTS IN NEW YORK.
THEY WERE SURPRISINGLY
OPTIMISTIC, MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN THEY'VE BEEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF YEARS WHERE THE
FUTURE IS IN DIGITAL, AND
THEY'RE REALLY SEEING BIG
STRIDES IN DIGITAL.
OF COURSE STILL THEIR CASH COW
IS STILL FILM, AND SALES
CONTINUE TO DECLINE.
THE CAVEAT ALSO IS WHAT'S
GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE
ECONOMY?
KODAK SAYS THINGS ARE GOING TO
REALLY TAKE OFF FOR THEM ONCE
THE RECESSION ENDS, BUT
THEY'RE NOT REALLY SAYING ANY
MORE WHEN THAT'S GOING TO TAKE
PLACE.
>> Michael: SO THEN THEY DON'T
KNOW WHEN THE RECESSION'S
GOING TO END, AND THAT'S OF
COURSE WHAT EVERY OTHER
BUSINESS IS THINKING.
SO IT'S KIND OF A MUTED GOOD
NEWS THEN?
>> YEAH.
THIS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY,
WHEN YOU TALK TO BUSINESS
PEOPLE, THIS HAS BEEN A REALLY
TOUGH ONE TO PIN.
THEY'RE NOT REALLY SURE WHEN
IT'S GOING TO BE OVER.
THE SIGNS THEY'RE LOOKING FOR,
THEY SAY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GO UP AND DOWN, AND SO IT'S
HARD TO GET A REAL CLEAR GRASP
OF THINGS WHERE BUSINESSES ARE
USED TO PLANNING UP TO SIX
MONTHS TO A YEAR, PEOPLE ARE
PRETTY MUCH GOING MONTH TO
MONTH, QUARTER TO QUARTER NOW.
>> Michael: WHAT WAS THE
INVESTOR REACTION TO THIS
REPORT?
ANY?
>> LOTS OF POSITIVE.
THE ANALYSTS FEEL KODAK WAS
REALLY ABLE TO SHOW THAT THEY
BROUGHT THEIR FINANCIAL
PICTURE IN LINE AND
STREAMLINED THINGS WITH
COST-CUTTING AND OTHER THINGS
THAT THEY'VE DONE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS, WHILE HE
WAS, YOU KNOW, CAUTIOUSLY
SAYING THINGS CAN CHANGE, DAN
CARSON SAID HE DOESN'T SEE ANY
NEED FOR ANY NEW COST CUTTING
OR JOB CUTTING.
>> Michael: THAT'S GOOD.
THE BLUE CROSS HAD AN
ANNOUNCEMENT, I THINK THIS
WEEK, AND THEY TALKED ABOUT
ANOTHER DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASE.
I THINK IT'S THE FOURTH YEAR
IN A ROW?
>> YES.
THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH YEAR
OF DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASE.
>> Michael: HOW DOES THIS
AFFECT THE SMALL BUSINESSES,
NOT SO MUCH THE LARGE
CORPORATIONS BUT THE SMALL?
>> WELL, IT ACTUALLY AFFECTS
EVERYBODY.
OBVIOUSLY IT HITS THE SMALL
BUSINESS HARDER, BUT IT REALLY
AFFECTS EVERYBODY BECAUSE
WHAT'S HAPPENING IS PEOPLE
BACK NOT THAT LONG AGO... TO
PICK UP REALLY THE BULK OF
EMPLOYEES' HEALTH INSURANCE.
THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO DO THAT
ANY MORE WITH COSTS CONTINUING
TO RISE.
SO EMPLOYERS ARE PASSING THOSE
COSTS DOWN.
AND THE I.M.C. DID A SURVEY.
AND BASICALLY MOST EMPLOYERS,
ABOUT 70% OF THE EMPLOYERS
SAID THEY WERE GOING TO HAVE
TO SHARE THESE INCREASES AND
COSTS IN SOME WAY.
SO IT'S HURTING THEIR BOTTOM
LINES, AND IT ALSO HURTS THEIR
ABILITY TO ATTRACT PEOPLE
BECAUSE HEALTH CARE AND THOSE
KIND OF BENEFITS ARE ONE OF
THE MAJOR REASONS PEOPLE GO TO
WORK.
IT'S ALMOST AS MUCH ABOUT THAT
NOW AS IT IS ABOUT SALARIES.
>> Michael: HOW DO THEY TALK
ABOUT SHARING?
DO THEY TALK ABOUT -- YOU'LL
TAKE THE WHOLE -- TALKING TO
THE EMPLOYEES, ARE YOU GOING
TO TAKE THE WHOLE BITE OF THE
APPLE OR ARE YOU GOING TO TAKE
PART OF THE BITE OF THE APPLE?
>> FOR SOME COMPANIES, THEY'RE
GOING TO HAVE TO PASS THE
WHOLE THING ON.
OTHERS ARE GOING TO PASS A
PORTION OF IT ON.
SOME ARE EVEN GOING TO LOOK TO
SWITCH TO OUTSIDE INSURANCE
COMPANIES, WHICH A NUMBER OF
COMPANIES HERE HAVE DONE.
THEY'VE MOVED TO
SELF-INSURANCE.
IN CASES ADMINISTERED BY BLUE
CROSS AND BLUE SHIELD HERE; IN
OTHER CASES THEY'VE MOVED...
>> Michael: HOW DOES THIS
FACTOR INTO THAT COMMUNITY
RATING ARGUMENT WE HEARD?
YOU REMEMBER THE COUNTY
BROUGHT UP, YOU KNOW, MAYBE
WE'LL SELF-INSURE AND GET OUT
OF THIS COMMUNITY RATING.
HOW DOES THIS ALL AFFECT THAT
ARGUMENT AND THAT DEBATE?
>> OBVIOUSLY WHEN PEOPLE PULL
OUT OF THE SELF -- PULL OUT TO
SELF-INSURE, THEY PULL OUT OF
THAT COMMUNITY RATING POOL.
FEWER PEOPLE IN THERE.
AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH
COMMUNITY RATINGS, YOU HAVE
PEOPLE THAT ARE -- YOU KNOW,
WHERE HIGH COST AND LOW COST,
AND SOMEHOW IT BALANCES OUT
AND WE'RE ABLE TO GIVE
EVERYBODY A BETTER RATE.
THE MORE PEOPLE THAT PULL OUT,
THE SMALLER THE POOL, THE MORE
DIFFICULT IT BECOMES TO
MAINTAIN THAT.
>> Michael: ELLEN, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US
AGAIN.